Ask for the value of a used excavator and you’ll get a question back: value to whom, and on what day? A single number hides the one thing a lender is actually underwriting — the gap between what an asset is worth in a good month and what it returns when the borrower has already defaulted.
That’s why ExactVal never returns one figure. It returns three, because three is what it takes to write a credit decision you can defend.
Retail — the optimistic ceiling
Retail is what the machine fetches from a dealer forecourt to an end user who wants that specific model, prepared and warranted. It’s the number a borrower quotes you. Useful as a ceiling, dangerous as a basis for advance — because you will almost never realise it in a recovery.
Average — the working number
The average (or “most likely”) value is what the asset trades at in a normal, arm’s-length sale between informed parties — trade-to-trade, no special premium, no distress. For most lending decisions this is the anchor: it’s the figure the loan-to-value is really set against.
The spread between retail and fire-sale is the risk. A wide gap on a thin-market machine should change your advance rate, not just your paperwork.
Fire-sale — the number that protects you
Fire-sale (forced liquidation) is what the asset returns at auction, quickly, with no time to wait for the right buyer. It is the floor under your exposure. If the deal goes wrong, this is the cash you see — so it is the number that should drive the advance you’re comfortable making.
Why the spread matters more than the midpoint
Two machines can share the same average value and carry completely different risk. A common, liquid model has a tight spread — fire-sale sits close to average, so a default is survivable. A rare configuration in a thin market has a wide spread, and the same loan-to-value is a different animal entirely. Showing all three numbers, side by side, is what makes that risk visible at the point of decision.
Each tier links back to the comparables and condition evidence behind it, with a confidence score that tells you when to lean on the number and when to send it for a second look.
If you run a book of used equipment and want to see all three numbers on your own machines, book a demo.